Private equity operated and thrived for decades before most investors had ever heard the term "private credit."

• But the two now are inextricably linked, which means that private credit's problems are private equity's problems.

Catch up quick: Private equity today has around 3x the amount of assets under management as it did heading into the Great Financial Crisis.

• That growth was largely enabled by the rise of private credit, particularly as Wall Street banks became more limited in how and how much they could lend.
• Near-zero interest rates also played a major role in more recent years, but no longer.

State of play: A private credit contraction would likely mean a private equity contraction.

• Yes, there could be some reweighting toward leveraged loans, even for sponsor-to-sponsor deals, but not necessarily enough to make up the difference. Let alone enable further growth.

Zoom in: We don't know for certain that private credit will shrink in the aggregate. Particularly if some of the underlying software assets prove more resilient to Claude than is conventional wisdom (i.e., solvency saves liquidity), or if more opportunistic credit funds step into the void.

• The warning signs, however, are bright.
• One of Carlyle's private credit funds just got hit with 15.7% redemption requests — more than triple the 5% limit. Other managers who've been asked for more than they can give include Blue Owl and BlackRock.

The bottom line: Private equity rode the wave of private credit. It may get slammed by some breakers.

Sazerac, the maker of Buffalo Trace bourbon and cinnamon-flavored Fireball, has made a takeover approach to Brown-Forman (NYSE: BF), the Jack Daniel's Tennessee Whiskey maker that's been in talks to be acquired by Pernod Ricard (Paris: RI).

Why it's the BFD: Booze brands are in decline, thanks to a sober-minded Gen Z, and are hoping the scale and synergies can reverse the skid. Particularly when a merger-friendly White House is in power.

Zoom in: Both Sazarac and Brown-Forman are based in Louisville, whereas Pernod Ricard is French.

• Brown-Forman shares are up more than 20% over the past month, giving it a market cap of nearly $14 billion.

The bottom line: "The founding families of Sazerac, Pernod Ricard and Brown-Forman all maintain stakes in their companies, with Sazerac remaining entirely family-owned. William Goldring and his family are the third and fourth generation of Sazerac's family owners." — Laura Cooper of WSJ, who first broke the news

• ShengShu, a Beijing-based AI video startup, raised around $293m. Alibaba led, joined by Baidu Ventures and Luminous Ventures. axios.link/4vlLfu9

🚑 Chapter, a Medicare navigation platform, raised $100 million in Series E funding. Generation Investment Management led, joined by Fifth Down Capital, 8VC and insiders Stripes, XYZ Venture Capital, Addition, Narya Capital, Susa Ventures, and Maverick Ventures. axios.link/4snzNLO

• Elorian, a startup focused on visual reasoning for AI, raised $55m in seed funding at a $300m valuation from Striker Ventures, Menlo Ventures, Altimeter, Nvidia, and Jeff Dean. axios.link/4sttVRB

🚑 Luminai, an SF-based enterprise automation platform for health care, raised $38m in Series B funding. Peak XV Partners led, joined by Define Ventures and insiders General Catalyst and YC. axios.link/4c1Egzc

• Paysend, a U.K.-based international money transfer company, raised $25m from Claret Capital Partners. axios.link/41YTP4C

• Juno, an SF-based tax prep automation startup, raised a $12m seed round led by Bonfire Ventures, with participation from Impression Ventures and Xfund. axios.link/4c2x3yT

🚑 TeiaCare, an Italian care monitoring startup, raised €7m led by P101. axios.link/3NQxFyk

• PeakMetrics, an LA-based reputation monitoring platform, raised $6m in Series a funding, per Axios. Moneta Ventures led, joined by Techstars, Parameter Ventures, Vitalize Venture Capital, and Gurtin Ventures. axios.link/4sZYvTE

• Juno, an SF-based tax prep automation startup, raised $12m in seed funding. Bonfire Ventures led, joined by Impression Ventures and Xfund. axios.link/3O6Cm7d

• Packz, a gamified collectibles platform, raised $10.7m from Makers Fund, The Raine Group, Courtside Ventures, Sharp Alpha Advisors, and RiverPark Ventures. axios.link/4mklZ3i

🌎 Refiant AI, a startup focused on reducing AI's carbon footprint, raised $5m in seed funding led by VoLo Earth Ventures. axios.link/41k7hQr

• Taurus, an "AI-native consumer brands company," raised $4.3m in seed funding led by General Catalyst. axios.link/4tHR4kd

• Flashpass, a Cincinnati-based reskilling platform focused on AI job displacement, raised $4.1m led by J2 Ventures. axios.link/4eckdiO

• Sigma Automate, an Atlanta-based IT automation startup, raised $2.75m led by Glasswing Ventures. axios.link/4ce0Q6x

• Edmund, a Czech debugging platform for industrial maintenance, raised €2.5m led by FORWARD.one, with participation from University2Ventures and Tensor Ventures. axios.link/3Q2Z6Wa

🚀 Portal Space Systems, a Bothell, Wash.-based developer of maneuverable spacecraft for orbital warfare, raised funding from Booz Allen Ventures. axios.link/4smAaGs

🚑 Avista acquired Bentec Medical, a Woodland, Calif.-based maker of silicone components for medical devices, from Greyrock and Hermitage Equity Partners. axios.link/47UoRy1

• Baymark Partners acquired Katydid, a Dallas-based clothing, accessories, and gifts brand. axios.link/4mhbVbs

• Blackstone acquired a "significant minority stake" in Rowan Digital Infrastructure, a hyperscale data center developer, from Quinbrook. axios.link/4ecHJft

• Charlesbank Capital Partners reinvested in Bridgepointe Technologies, a San Mateo, Calif.-based tech advisory and enablement services platform. axios.link/4mgRuLH

🚑 Council Capital acquired MedicalServiceQuotes, a medical services procurement tool. axios.link/4mhcJgu

⚡ Kuwait Petroleum is receiving interest for a $7b stake in its pipeline network from such firms as GIP, Brookfield, EIG, KKR, Macquarie, and Stonepeak, per Bloomberg. axios.link/41JT8fH

• Mission Critical Group acquired TxLa Systems, a Huffman, Texas-based maker of electrical switchgear and modular systems. MCG is backed by CFT Capital Partners, Capital Southwest, Emerald Lake Capital Management, and Main Street Capital. axios.link/4twWC0B

• ZRG, backed by RFE Investment Partners, acquired Howard Fischer Associates, an executive and board search firm. axios.link/4tCndJF

• Aevex, a Solana Beach, Calif.-based drone maker owned by Madison Dearborn Partners, set IPO terms to 16m shares at $18-$21. It would have a $2.18b market cap, were it to price in the middle, and plans to list on the NYSE (AVEX). axios.link/4tx15QX

• HawkEye 360, a Herndon, Va.-based radio signals intelligence company, filed for an IPO. It reports $3m of net income on $99m in revenue for 2025, and plans to list on theNYSE (HAWK). It raised around $580m from firms like Insight Partners, NightDragon, GIC, and Razor's Edge Ventures. axios.link/3OhiJt9

• Dynatrace (NYSE: DT) agreed to acquire Bindplane, a Grand Rapids, Mich.-based telemetry company, from backers like Edison Partners. axios.link/41lKxj1

• EQT agreed to sell a 30% stake in Nordic Ferry Infrastructure to a group that includes Gotlandsbolaget, Interogo Infrastructure and Lægernes Pension. EQT will retain a majority stake. axios.link/47MJvAb

• Francisco Partners hired JPMorgan to find a buyer for MyFitnessPal, a health-tracking app that could fetch over $1b, per Reuters. axios.link/4cbPHV7

• Remote, an HR and payroll platform valued by VCs at nearly $3b, acquired Bravas, a French identity and device management startup seeded by Super Capital and Evolem. axios.link/4dDlz6a

• Unilever (NYSE: UL) agreed to acquire gummy supplements maker Grüns. No financial terms were disclosed, but Axios Pro put the price-tag at $1.2b. Oregon-based Grüns had raised over $35m from Headline, Vanterra Ventures, Selva Ventures, Able Partners, SilverCircle, Grt Sht Ventures, Plus Capital, and Sugar Capital. axios.link/48Ck7NL

• Cohere, a Canadian enterprise AI company valued by VCs at $7b, is in talks to merge with Germany's Aleph Alpha, per Handelsblatt. Berlin is said to support the deal. axios.link/4sqkRNc

• Corient, a Miami-based wealth management firm, acquired Vivaldi Capital Management, a Chicago-based RIA with $5.6b in AUM. axios.link/48AWO6W

• Federated Hermes (NYSE: FHI) completed its $331m cash and stock purchase of an 80% stake in FCP Fund Manager, a Chevy Chase, Md.-based real estate investment manager focused on multifamily properties. axios.link/4cguTu2

• Fosun International of China is considering the sale of its 20.45% stake in Banco Comercial Português, per Expresso. axios.link/3Q2NZwr

• Stefano Gabbana is weighing options for his stake in fashion house Dolce & Gabbana, after resigning as chairman. axios.link/4spzsZm

• Numa, a VC-backed AI platform for auto dealership customer ops, acquired sales platform Ficus. axios.link/4e7nbFi

• Terra Quantum, a Swiss developer of hybrid quantum algorithms, signed a non-binding LOI to merge with Mountain Lake Acquisition Corp. II (Nasdaq: MLAAW), a SPAC led by Paul Grinberg, at a $3.25b valuation. Terra Quantum backers include Lakestar and Anders Indset. axios.link/4vjEclT

• Vireo Growth (CNQ: VREO) bought Hawthorne Gardening from Scotts Miracle-Gro (NYSE: SMG). axios.link/4tzvoGJ

• Arcmont raised a $2.5b credit CV, inclusive of leverage, led by Ares. axios.link/4t55ISE

• RBC plans to launch a C$1b growth equity fund focused on Canadian companies. axios.link/41qhURG

• Warburg Pincus is raising a Europe-focused defense fund, with Munich Re as a cornerstone backer. axios.link/4mFhe4V

• Luke Dauch joined Transom Capital Group as a principal focused on biz dev. He previously was an industrials banker at JPMorgan. axios.link/4caPX5f

• Bill Mone joined Norm Law as a partner focused on private equity clients. He previously was with Ropes & Gray. axios.link/4cjpaUA

• Toyota Ventures promoted Chris Abshire to partner. axios.link/48Cz7eu

U.S. inflation surged in March, due largely to the Iran war, with the Consumer Price Index rising 0.9% for the month and 3.3% year-over-year.

• Core CPI, which strips out energy and food prices, was up 0.2% for the month and 2.6% year-over-year.

CPI is obviously a backward-looking metric. For context, the March number includes a 21% increase in average gas prices, whereas they're now around 40% higher than pre-war.